(Fwd)Wireless Technology Makes Waves In All Directions

Louis E. Frenzel | ED Online ID #17819 | January 17, 2008

Nothing is hotter now than the cell-phone business, which is driving semiconductor sales. And while cell phones are the biggest contributor to electronics growth, many other wireless technologies keep expanding as we drive toward a totally wireless society.

In 2007, annual cell-phone sales exceeded 1 billion handsets for the first time. Experts say 2008 will see 1.4 billion sales. The total number of U.S. subscribers passed 250 million in 2007, but the market is nearing saturation.

Despite this impressive number, the U.S. is small potatoes. China saw about 400 million handset sales in 2007, and that is only a fraction of the potential there. India is another growing customer, second to China in volume.

3G Rollout
Third-generation (3G) cell phones based on the ITU UMTS WCDMA standards set by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) are slowly but surely being bought and deployed, especially in the larger cities of Asia, Europe, and the U.S. The U.S. 3G rollout is going more slowly. But Qualcomm’s cdma2000 EV-DO technology, which is used by Sprint Nextel and Verizon, is helping it along.

The Rev. A and B versions of EV-DO are even faster and becoming more widely deployed in cell phones and notebook data cards. Some High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) 3G technology that boosts WCDMA connection speeds to more than 3 Mbits/s are also coming online. While 3G adoption is roughly only 50% of what it could be worldwide (even less in the U.S.), it is expected to ramp up as the carriers build out their networks and add services and as new phones become available.

Progress In 4G
The development of fourth-generation (4G) cell-phone technologies continues to progress, with the Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard apparently well in the lead for future adoption. LTE is still under development in the 3GPP, but is expected to be ratified in 2009.

This is the upgrade path that current GSM/EDGE/ WCDMA carriers like AT&T and T-Mobile will adopt in the future. It uses orthogonal frequency-division multiple access (OFDMA) and promises data speeds to 100 Mbits/s.

Qualcomm’s Ultra Mobile Broadband technology is also 4G and uses OFDMA. It is the 4G upgrade path for cdma2000 EV-DO carriers. But LTE now has the support of cdma2000 EV-DO carrier Verizon and has just about clinched the title of 4G winner.

The "Open" Movement
U.S. cell-phone carriers only offer the products and services they want you to have in their so-called “walled gardens.” Many experts say this limits their possible applications. Google wants to change this approach, intending to enter the cell-phone business and provide open products and services.

With the real possibility of Google becoming a buyer of spectrum in the forthcoming FCC auction and thus competing in the wireless business, the big carriers have beat Google to the punch. Verizon and more recently AT&T announced that they would immediately open their systems, giving subscribers a chance to buy other phones and use other applications.

Meanwhile, Google’s recent announcement of its Android Linux-based operating system software for developing open applications has generated lots of interest in developing third-party software and applications for cell phones.

The Femto Phenomenon
A recent upsurge in interest in femtocells will further roil the cell-phone business. A femtocell is a home basestation that is designed to bring superior cell coverage inside homes (see the figure). With over 50% of all cellular calls coming from inside buildings and homes, many customers have discovered just how unreliable wireless can be with multiple walls and other obstructions.

The femtocell is a full-blown basestation, but operates at low power to prevent spillover into the marco network or into your neighbor’s home. It connects to your DSL or cable TV high-speed Internet connection for backhaul to the carrier. There’s lots of interest, with carriers studying it and preparing network changes to accommodate it. While 2008 is expected to be a year of study and development, look for real femto-cell products and services in 2009.